Mystery Solved--The 55% Solution

Howdy Chiefs Fans!!!  How ya doing???  What's with all those long faces and evil looks?  Come now, you didn't really believe this Chiefs team was going to go 16-0 on a march to the Super Bowl--DID YOU?  Sherlock has solved the riddle.  It's all about the 55% solution.

It was pretty easy to predict this down turn would happen if you were actually, you know, honest with yourself about how good (or not) this team really is.  Don't ever lose sight of the fact that this is about being good enough to beat anybody, not just to be 'improved'.  It's not good enough just to get better unless that better is really best.  Ya know?


The truth is that you can never insulate yourself with and revel in wins while ignoring their significance, unless you just truly love being a fan boi homer who reverts to nanny-nanny-boo-boo when the shit hits the fan.  Once that happens (as it did in Mile High and now twice in OUR OWN HOUSE), these fans cling to their homerism like bitter clingers hold onto their guns.  Then they begin to make idiotic statements and excuses in support of a fictional team (because the real one isn't as good as they wished for), showing (ironically) that they are exactly what they claim not to be--homers that refuse to listen to dissenting voices of truth.

Despite all of the gnashing of teeth, vitriolic dressing down of the Zebras and an avalanche of excuse ridden, defense mechanism empowering, fan boi reasoning articles and discussion of damn near biblical proportions...the truth still remains.  The Chiefs were soundly dispensed with by the second decent team they've had to face all season, and they lost (at home) to another that wasn't as good as Denver (although the Boltz defense is better than Denvers). The truth is that the Chiefs have trouble scoring points against moderate and better defenses.

The 55% solution of this season is exactly what I talked about in my last post, We've Been Down This Road Before.  The DST had scored 55% of the teams points in it's first 9 games against very suspect teams.  What has happened since?  Here are the numbers.  In the three games since the bye, the Chiefs have scored 83 points.  This fact alone has gotten many fans in a Super Bowl Kool Aid Coma (SBKAC for short).  Seriously.  We now have fans on another well known site running around with their excuse machines producing some of the most comical excuses I've seen for Chiefs losses in some time.  I actually saw one fan who said he was HAPPY that the Chiefs lost because it will give them something to work on!!  As if this team is so good it didn't have anything to work on before the loss!!  Talk about your FAN BOI status...in the words of Harry Carry--Hoooleeee Cooooow!

83 points in three games is an average of 27.66 points per game.  Better than they had been doing, yes (first nine games average was 23.88), but the point is that the team increased the number of points they scored and lost their first three games.  This fact is what some are hanging their hats on as proof that this team is getting better and is now A FORCE TO BE RECKONED WITH in the NFL.

 

Uh, no.  Unfortunately, you have to win important games against moderate to great teams for this to apply.  So far, the Chiefs have not done this with the possible exception of the Cowboys win in week 2.  Holding onto a one point victory, at home, against a team who is currently 7-5 and barely able to hold onto it's lead in it's own division does not qualify as being a team to be reckoned with.  Sorry.

I even read one crazy contributors wish to play the Donkeys again.  He is so delusional as to this teams prowess right now that he actually thinks that if he could just play the Donks again it would prove we will win and are the better team.  My friends, this is the epitome of being a FAN BOI.  It goes something like this: 

WE LOST?  BIG FUCKING DEAL.  OH, WE LOST TO THE SAME TEAM TWICE?  YEAH, WELL BIGGER FUCKING DEAL.  Nanny...Nanny...Boo...Boo.  WE ARE SOME BAD ASS MFers and just give me enough opportunities and we'll win no matter how many times we lose.  

This type of hyperbole is ridiculous folks and it indicates a fan that can't accept that his team can't do what he wishes it could.  I've been there.  I know.  Excuses right now range from bad officiating (there has been much on both sides of this coin) to bad luck (karma IS a bitch), to a team that is moving forward but just not fast enough (this is based on Reid finally pulling the stops and letting Smith throw the ball more--this of course out of desperation because he knew the defense would not be good enough to stop Pey-Pey and Phyllis). 

Getting back to the 55% solution.  As I said, 83 points was slightly better per game than the first nine games but it was to no avail.  Who scored those points?  That DST finally came down to earth scoring only 17.7% of those points versus 72.3% for the offense.  So, Aiken (you scream), what about that offense scoring over 72% of the points???  I thought you said the offense couldn't score points versus moderate to good defenses???  Who said the Broncos and Chargers have moderate to good defenses?  Right now, there is nothing to prove that this offense has what it takes to get the job done against good competition.

The 20 points per game that our offense scored during the last three games got us exactly three losses.  Two of them AT HOME with the crowd going nuts.  To lose games under those circumstances is not the mark of a team that can win a Super Bowl (maybe not even a playoff game).  I'll even expand my theory.  The Chiefs offense can't score enough points to win against a veteran QB who is playing well.

You want to know why the Chiefs scored more points and gained more yards the last three games versus the first nine?  It's simple. The Broncos and Chargers are ranked 27th and 29th respectively on defense in yards allowed per game in the NFL.  Both teams give up over 380 yards per game.  The two together rank among the six worst teams in the league in this category.  Guess who's worse?  Dallas and Philly bring up the rear in this regard giving up well over 400 yards per game.  You think that had anything to do with the Chiefs beating those teams?

The Chiefs offense had benefited all season from playing either weak defenses or pathetic offenses or both.  What you saw the last three weeks though, was two QBs who can win games when everything is on the line.  That's the difference.  Both of these guys went after our defense and challenged it with the long pass.  This, of course, is EXACTLY what you do when a team blitzes too much to keep pressure on the QB.  This is the flaw in our defense and Peyton and Phyllis exploited it to perfection.

So far, Alex can't say the same.  He has been throwing the ball deep more often, but he doesn't have the wins to go with it.  Until that happens, he's the same QB he was for seven seasons in San Francisco, and Andy Reid is the same Super Bowl winless HC he was for 14 seasons in Philly.  Sorry my friends, for me this just isn't good enough.

In my view, this is the make or break season for Reid.  If he can't win a playoff game with this team, this year, we need to move on.  I've been saying this for some time and the table is set for him to succeed.  He has had the luckiest run in getting to nine wins.  Joel Thorman even posted on AP that if Cassel and the Vikes win on Sunday along with the Chiefs, the Chiefs make the playoffs.  That would mean that Reid has three more weeks (or more) to prepare to win that first playoff game in 20 years in KC.  That will keep me off his back (to an extent) over the off season until I see what kind of moves he is making.  If he can't win that playoff game, it's time to go.

Thanks for reading my blog.  Here's hoping that Reid is more than an also ran.  I sure hope Clark is rewarded for his efforts.