We've Been Down This Road Before

There he is.  Mr. "Perfect" for Andy Reid's system of football.  Mr. I-will-save-the-Chiefs Smith.  Mr. 9-0.  

It's funny how the excuse machine is operating right now in Chiefs nation.  All the fans are very happy that the team is 9-0, but there is a strange lack of enthusiasm--sort of like when all those Go Chiefs comments end with a period rather than an exclamation point.  It's like some stoner trying to stand up and scream his team on who ends up saying, "Yeah, go, well sure, yeah whatever man", and then sits back down on that couch, hits that bong again and ends with a big inward smile showing approval of whatever red dream the herb helps create for him.

I wonder if DBowe knows that guy? 


I wonder if Andy remembers this.

 http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1933&dat=20011119&id=nCcgAAAAIBAJ&sjid=WmsFAAAAIBAJ&pg=6312,2772206

Eerily similar to the last couple of days events wouldn't you say?  I don't know folks.  Arsenio Hall would say that this needs to be filed under the heading of "Things that make ya go hmmmm".  The above article recounts what happened to a player for the Eagles during Andy's second season with the team.  That year's team went on to win 11 games only to lose in the Divisional round to the New York football Giants.

In fact, it was the beginning of Andy's run that cemented him as a fixture in Philly for the next 13 seasons.  That five year run that began in 2000 was Andy's claim to fame.  It's what has defined him as a coach in the NFL.  The Reid/McNabb lead Eagles would make the playoffs for five consecutive years, post a regular season record of 59-21 for an unheard of .7375 win percentage, and play in 12 playoff games including a Super Bowl loss with a post season record of 7 wins and 5 losses.

Sounds great doesn't it?  Before you answer, I'd suggest you go ask a Philadelphia Eagles fan who watched it all but never got the trophy.  Maybe ask Dan Marino how it feels to knock on that door for so long and so valiantly in vain, only to never see it opened.  Maybe you should talk to Marv Levy.  There is a man who set the standard for getting as close as possible without actually getting there.  Four Super Bowl losses in four consecutive seasons?  The worst part?  Here we are 25 years hence and not only have the Bills not won a SB, they haven't made it into the playoffs in going on 14 seasons.

Is winning better than losing?  Yes, but in the bigger picture if the trade off for winning now means that you won't win when the stakes are as big as they get, it's time to move on.  If Reid not winning a Super Bowl in Kansas City was a certainy, I think most fans would agree.  I've said before that the reason I so enjoyed watching Todd Haley get a shot at coaching the Chiefs was in large part because he didn't have any baggage like Reid does.  There was little to point to in his case to think he couldn't have gotten it done.  It didn't turn out that way, but it was much easier to believe in, simply because there wasn't much in the known universe about Todd Haley to suggest otherwise.

The problem is that Reid not winning a Super Bowl in KC is not written in stone. Past performance would suggest that he won't get it done, but people often refuse to see reality because (for them) hoping that the fantasy comes true is more fun.  I can be either realistic or optimistic (I wonder if the two are mutually exclusive), but experience shapes those two conditions more and more with every experience that is added to the collective.  All that winning in the regular season and playoffs, was also followed by losing in the playoffs.  Looked at another way, those same Reid/McNabb Eagles lost when it counted most for five consecutive seasons, culminating with a loss in a Super Bowl. 

I submit that the most important stat of all those I gave you about the above mentioned Eagles team is indeed those five playoff losses.  Reid had the opportunity to win a Super Bowl with a very talented team in five consecutive seasons and failed every single time.  Why?  There are many reasons that can be considered, but the one constant was Reid as HC and his dogged belief in a QB that couldn't seal the deal.

Those losses and the similarity of that constant to current circumstances with our Chiefs are why I have held to my position that the only way that Reid gets my approval (like that matters :) to return to the Chiefs next season as HC is by getting at least one playoff victory.  The only reason that I stop there is simply because this is such an achievement for the Chiefs.  I still find this hard to believe, but it has been nearly 20 seasons since this team has won a playoff game.  God that sentence is hard to live with.

Once Reid was named HC, I fully expected this team to make the playoffs.  That is Reid's pedigree.  If he failed to do that, then bringing him here was a waste.  After he started making moves along with Dorsey, it confirmed for me that he was going down the same road he had back in 2000.  He happened to draft McNabb instead of trading for Smith, but the commitment is apparently the same.  I wonder if Reid is still as enamored with Smith as he was when he ran up to John Harbaugh with draft picks hanging out of his pockets screaming "I want Smith and price is no object!".  Given Andy's past history concerning QBs, I'll bet Smith's performance hasn't deterred Reid one bit.

Getting back to present day, I just thought it compelling to notice the similarity of this drug arrest by DBowe to the situation back in 2001 with Reid's Eagles.  Both happened in November, both were instances of three guys in a car, late at night being pulled over for speeding and the officer smelled pot.  It happened at the beginning of Reid's big run and it's now happened again.  Coincidence?  Probably, but a weird one for sure.

    

What does it mean for the Chiefs?  I don't know.  Why did this happen on Reid's watch?  Could it be his approach to team discipline?  I think that's a possibility.  Presumably, DBowe didn't just take up pot smoking recently.  If that is true, why didn't he pull this Bowener (see what I did there?) before?  Random?  Possibly.  Or maybe his previous coaches made it clear that this kind of behavior was not going to be tolerated?  It could also have something to do with signing a big contract and letting his guard down.  Maybe he was being tested regularly before (because of his previous suspension for PEDs abuse) and Reid stopped it to be his buddy.  If so, you see how he was rewarded.  We'll never know, but coincidences often have a basis in something that isn't random.

So, it's apparent that Reid has been down this road before.  So have the Chiefs just a few years ago.  2003 to be exact.  Dick Vermeil was the coach du jour back then and Trint Green the QB.  9-0 seemed somehow more exciting back then than it does today.  Why?  Partially because that season was one of those experiences that I mentioned that help to shape my optimism and realism.  Today's 9-0 seems not quite as shiny precisely because it's all been done before, and the worst part is how that season ended.

For those who don't remember or have forgotten because your Chief fan defense mechanism kicked in and wiped the memory from your data banks, that team was riding high.  In that year, the best of Dick Vermeil's years in terms of accomplishments,  not only did the Chiefs qualify for the playoffs they won the AFC West.  The Chiefs obliterated their divisional opponents beating both the Chargers and the Raiders twice and Denver one out of two.

Interestingly enough, that divisional game vs. the Donkeys that the Chiefs didn't win was pretty lopsided. Clinton Portis was the man of that day rushing against our defense for FIVE TDs.  Yes my fellow Chiefs fans, I said FIVE.  Portis had TD runs of 59, 53, 28, 11, and 1 yds.  The Broncos scored 45 points that day with Jake Plummer at the helm.  Trint, Dante Hall, Priest Holmes and all their cohorts could only muster 27 points in a season where they averaged 30.25 a game.  As it turned out, 30.25 wouldn't be enough in the playoffs either.  This all happened to a team that was 11-1 at the time.  Were Chiefs fans concerned?  Hell no.  We were on fire.  One screw up did not a Super Bowl season destroy, right?

After winning 13 games in the regular season, winning the division and securing homefield advantage, these lucky, lucky Chiefs (to paraphrase bewsafs latest work) had no other than Peyton Manning and the Colts come to town looking to hang a L on one of the highest scoring Chiefs offenses in years.  Unfortunately for the Chiefs, Peyton paid close attention to that Donkeys game.  Peyton didn't disappoint, throwing for just over 300 yards and 3 TDs.  Between him and Edgerin James running the ball into the end zone twice, the Colts would score 38 points to the Chiefs 31, ending yet another in a long line of Chiefs playoff dreams.  Dante Hall even ran a kick return back 92 yards for a TD to no avail.  This was one the DST couldn't pull out.

BOOM.

I know the team is 9-0 this year.  I also know that a combination of things has caused this to happen and not all of those things have to do with how the Chiefs have played.  I will grant you that the defense has played very solid football so far this season (it is the competition that I would say is somewhat suspect).  Conversely,  the offense has not.  Sans turnovers, this offense has sputtered particularly in terms of scoring points.  Does that concern you?  It should.

Let's take a look at that schedule and see just how we wound up at 9-0.

We started off the season playing the powerhouse Jags.  Do I really need to go over this win?  The Jags only score was 2 points on a safety from their defense!  Yes our D has played well, but this offense is/was dismal.  Their current record is 1-8.  This was a soft ball for our defense to get started with.  I think Romeo could have beaten this team...well, maybe.  Whatever the case, beating this team isn't very instructive on the subject of just how good our team is.

Then we take on three quarters of what is quickly becoming the NFC L-east.  Yep our Chieefees beat all three.  Quite an accomplishment, right?  Not so fast Smedley.  What new Chiefs coach from that same NFC least might just have spent his last 14 seasons playing either for or against each of those teams?  If  you said Big Red the casino lady is coming with your $100 dollar bills.  If you said somebody else you fell asleep already and are excused from the table.  Go do your homework.

YES!!  Andy Reid just spent his entire HC career playing these teams (except Philly of course--need that be explained?) twice and sometimes more per year.  Don't you think that there was a slight chance that having Reid as our HC gave us a small edge that we hadn't had before?  Combine that with a new HC with QB problems in Philly, absolute decimation by the injury report in NY and Tony Romo's ability to both win and lose games he shouldn't, and you have a recipe for three Chiefs wins.  We'll also be talking more about scoring but doesn't this sound an awful lot like the perfect storm for a paper tiger to live in?  Not yet?  Well wait cuz it gets better.

So here are the Chiefs at 4-0.  What happens next?  An inexplicable stroke of luck.  The next five games the team plays in, they don't face one single, solitary starting QB!!  Hooooooboy, how lucky can one team get?  Bewsaf (as usual) completely understated the obvious.  Lucky doesn't begin to describe this fortune.  In the next five games the Chiefs defense was looking across the line at Ryan Fitzpatrick, Terrelle Pryor, Case Keenum (an undrafted Rookie!!), Jason Campbell (who Reid should also be familiar with from his days in Washington), and Jeff Tuel (who?).  What a rag tag band of miscreant zombies!!  (Ok, in fairness Fitzpatrick has been a starter with some success, but he didn't start out the season as the starter).  Stack'em up and mow'em down!  The Chiefs defense should have had a field day.  Ya know what?  They did.

Did you realize that the Chiefs defense and special teams have scored over 55% of the teams total points this season?  Twice during the zombie run, the Chiefs DST scored 20 points or more (it's happened three times total this season).  Only once during that run did the DST not score in double digits.  On four of those nine wins, the DST has equaled or outscored the offense.  Being the beneficiary of this kind of good fortune is fun.  Counting on it to save the bacon against the better teams in the league is a recipe for a broken heart.  Given the evidence that I have provided here, you have to at least acknowledge that our 9-0 record is not based entirely on a dominant team alone.  Good fortune has played it's part.  We are now at that point in the season where the rubber meets the road.

Seven games remain and five of them are against division foes.  Once again the Chiefs caught a lucky break in getting their bye week at the perfect time to catch their breath and steady for the second half climb that they must attempt (can their luck hold Bews???).  The Chiefs are almost surely a playoff team at this point based on record even if they lose out the rest of the way.  I submit however, that a 9-7 (or 10-6, 11-5) barely-held-on-to-slide-in-as-a-wildcard team is much different than a division-winning-home-field-advantage playoff team.  We know Peyton can play.  Don't count out Phyllis just yet either.  Just like the Phoenix, Rivers has risen from the ashes that started this season and is putting together a pretty solid run right now.  As it should be, this is going to come down to who runs the AFC West.  It's gonna be a dog fight.

Remember that 2003 team I was talking about before?  They were the latter type of playoff team I described and not the former. They still got whipped in the playoffs, at home, with an extra week to prepare, by Pey-Pey and his Colts.  That offense could score points.  They did win 13 games ya know.

That DST wasn't this DST, but remember how the buzz felt every time you saw Dante Hall trot out for a kick/punt return?  Dante returned two of each for TDs that season, one of which was in that playoff game!  So far this season, Dex has managed one.  Dex =/= Dante...at least so far.  He still has time, so we'll just have to wait and see.

I know, I know.  Aiken is just being his grumpy, negative self-right?  I don't think so.  So far, most of my opinions have been pretty close to what's happened.  I never saw 9-0 but who the hell could forsee a Zombie run like the one this team has enjoyed?  At Sutton's hire, I called him a 50/50 shot that would be either a home run or bust with nothing in between.  So far he's seemed to have taken the best parts of what Pettine did with the Jets and brought it here to KC.  Now, we're (finally) going to get another look at that defense versus some good teams with good QBs.  I'm very anxious to see how it does against Peyton.  Alex Smith has been very Matt Cassel like and that cannot be disputed.

Actually, the Cowboys win is the one that gives me the most feel good about this team's chances, but given the Tony Romo factor I have to say that if they played that game again, Romo might just pull it off.  He's had some injury trouble with his team this season too.  Squeaking by with a one point nail biter against a middle of the pack team isn't all that encouraging but I just can't let beating the Cowboys mean nothing.  So, I embellish that one in my memory just a little bit.

That's about it for this time.  For those of you who have expressed interest in seeing me more often on AP, I appreciate the sentiment, but too many over there want to see me ejected.  Way too many folks running around with hearts on their sleeves who can't just let me have my say.  Constantly jumping to conclusions about what I write instead of telling me why they think differently.  Here, I can pretty much write what I want and not have to worry about all that crap.  For those who appreciate and enjoy what I write, I say thank you very much.  You have no idea what that means to me and you have my gratitude.

I'll leave you with this little ditty.  I saw a recent article on AP that said this team was no fluke.  I think that the door on that possibility is not completely closed as yet.  The evidence that I have provided here should be enough to at least leave it open a crack...until it gets thrown wide open or gets slammed shut with a blow out playoff game win.  Either way, these are the facts of the case and they are not in dispute.

I simply don't know how one can draw the conclusion that this team is for real until it actually performs well enough to prove it.  So far, it's had a good run but just like those Reid Eagles teams of the past, the wins don't mean a thing if you ain't got that swing.  If they can't win when it matters most, the rest is just lace and crushed velvet window dressing.  Sunday night is going to tell us quite a bit (even though Peyton is injured).

In a recent post game presser some reporter was fishing for info on whether or not Peyton was hurt.  The Question, "It looked like you were throwing a lot of wobbly passes out there today, are you ok?"

The Reply,  "Yeah, I throw a lot of wobbly passes...throw a lot of wobbly touchdowns too.".  

This guys has been a thorn in our side for YEARS.  I hope this time we can do something about that.  We did do it once.  The existence of Alex Smith, a certain number one WR with a bit of a drug problem, and the lack of some spiritual help tells me it won't happen that way again.  As Faith Hill said, "I've been waitin' all day for Sunday Night".

GO CHIEFS

CHIEFS WILL  CHIEFS WIN  BELIEVE