Where for art thou Bewsaf? Bewsaf was a fairly regular poster over at Arrowhead Pride a couple years ago. He made some very interesting posts about our offense and it's performance on a weekly basis. Then Bews started his own website and eventually he sort of disappeared. I suppose he lost interest, and given the sorry state of this team's win/loss record, can you blame him?
Alas, Bewsaf has abandoned us to our own exploits. Would that he could give us benefit of his opinion, but it is apparent that Bews, for enigmatic reasons of his own is no more on AP. I very much enjoyed reading Bews thoughts. I hope he is ok, somewhere sunny with his favorite beer. For the rest of us, we can only continue on with the slog of our Chiefs fandom.
Alas, Bewsaf has abandoned us to our own exploits. Would that he could give us benefit of his opinion, but it is apparent that Bews, for enigmatic reasons of his own is no more on AP. I very much enjoyed reading Bews thoughts. I hope he is ok, somewhere sunny with his favorite beer. For the rest of us, we can only continue on with the slog of our Chiefs fandom.
Bewsaf came up with a very interesting postulation about floundering teams. He wrote an AP post outlining his fears concerning what happens to a team once it falls below that floundering line. According to Bews theory, the floundering line is when a team puts up back to back seasons with win percentages of .250 or below. Bew's post about that is here.
It is my contention that when a team reaches the floundering line, all bets are off. The norm is no longer the rule. Things are worse then a fan would normally conclude. The franchise is floundering. --Bewsaf
He also said that up until he wrote the article (2009) nobody had figured out how to overcome the problem. Bews had mentioned six teams since 1999 as floundering teams. The Chiefs, Rams, Raiders, Lions, Browns and Bengals. When I went back to check this out and bring it up to date, I found that almost nothing had changed. ALMOST. Wonder of wonders, the Bengals, by virtue of last seasons 10-6 finish have finally broken through the wall.
| Record After Hitting Floundering Line | |||||||
| Yr | Chiefs | Rams | Raiders | Lions | Browns | Bengals*** | |
| 2012 | 2-14 | 7-8-1 | 4-12 | 4-12 | 5-11 | 10-6 | |
| 2011 | 7-9 | 2-14 | 8-8 | 10-6 | 4-12 | 9-7 | |
| 2010 | 10-6 | 7-9 | 8-8 | 6-10 | 5-11 | 4-12 | |
| 2009 | 4-12 | 1-15 | 5-11 | 2-14 | 5-11 | 10-6 | |
| 2008 | 2-14 | 2-14 | 5-11 | 0-16 | 4-12 | 4-11 | |
| 2007 | 4-12 | 3-13 | 4-12 | 7-9 | 10-6 | 7-9 | |
| 2006 | 2-14 | 3-13 | 4-12 | 8-8 | |||
| 2005 | 4-12 | 5-11 | 6-10 | 11-5 | |||
| 2004 | 5-11 | 6-10 | 4-12 | 8-8 | |||
| 2003 | 4-12 | 5-11 | 5-11 | 8-8 | |||
| 2002 | 3-13 | 9-7 | 2-14 | ||||
| 2001 | 2-14 | 7-9 | 6-10 | ||||
| 2000 | 9-7 | 3-13 | 4-12 | ||||
| 1999 | 8-8 | 2-14 | 4-12 | ||||
We will talk more about the Bengals shortly, but I find it astounding that this condition exists and is apparently so difficult to overcome. There have to be similarities among these teams that have caused this condition, but there are so many things that can be considered (and correspondingly few actual ways to prove the theory), where does one start the analysis?
I began to search outside the typical football world in an effort to find something on the larger plane that might help us understand why it is that floundering teams keep floundering. I found one interesting article from Pacific Standard that discusses a Tradition of Choking.
The article concludes that a team's previous record in wins and losses (ie the team's reputation as a winner or loser) actually affects the play, and therefore the success or failure of it's players and ultimately perpetuates that teams continuation of a winning (or losing) tradition. IT EVEN AFFECTED PLAYERS WHO ARE CURRENT MEMEBERS OF THE TEAM BUT DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN IT'S PREVIOUS LOSING WAYS. Very interesting. This is not good news for our beloved Chiefs because fairly recently they have taken the wrong turn on that win/loss road. If this article has any validity at all, our team is now in a situation that would seemingly be very difficult to overcome.
Can the Bengals show us the way out of Flounderville? For them, it has been a long a circuitous road to finally break through that barrier. The Bengals have been a floundering team for nearly as long as anyone in the league. Before Marvin Lewis's current team redeeming run, you have to go all the way back to the last two 14 game NFL seasons in 1976-77 to get back to back winners for the Bungles. Even Sam Wyche and Boomer Esiason couldn't do that--they did get close in 88-90 but had an 8-8 season between two winning years in that three year stretch.
Remember, Bewsafs theory is that to say a team is no longer floundering it must achieve back to back winning seasons at some point after the back to back .250 (or less winning percentage) seasons. 8-8 does not qualify as a winning season. This may be considered splitting hairs by some, but really, is it that much to ask to have back to back winning seasons? Is 9-7 really that hard to achieve? For the floundering teams, it sometimes seems like it is untouchable.
So how did the Bungles do it? How did they finally break the barrier? The answer appears to be multi-faceted. It looks as though it took a considerable amount of time and effort to bring about this miracle. Here are some observations about what came before this momentus accomplishment.
First, and I believe foremost, this success has to be attributed (largely) to Marvin Lewis. Lewis is entering his 11th season with the Bengals and the road he traveled has been plagued with pot holes all the way. It must be noted here that the Bengals is a family run operation that reportedly endorses nepotism as a hiring strategy in it's front office. While this may make the family happy, it isn't always the best candidate that gets hired to run the team. IMO, much of what has held the Bengals underwater has been perpetrated by the family running the business. That said, Marvin Lewis has been given some tools over his tenure in Cincy to transform that team and it would appear that he has finally gotten them in a position to be competitive.
Remember now, that all we are really talking about here is overcoming the flounders. It is my opinion that the next step, going from competitive to world class, is just as big a step. The difference is that watching a team compete with a chance to win is far more satisfying than watching blow outs followed by skinny loses and somehow making excuses for why the team is so talented but can't get it done.
Think of all the players that have gone through Lewis's system in that 10 years. He's had three starting QBs, two of which have been well above average in the league in Jon Kitna and Carson Palmer. Palmer owns many of the clubs records for QBs. Dalton was drafted two years ago (in the second round btw) and has been able to play well enough to get them winning records. Will he be the future of the franchise? That remains to be seen. Does that add wood to the 'we need to draft our own QB' fire? I'd say you're damn straight it does.
Both Palmer and Dalton were Cincy's own draft pics. Carson was taken with the first pick of the 2003 draft and Dalton with the 35th pick of the 2011 draft. You still think that hiring retreads like the Chiefs keep on doing is preferable to drafting and developing your own talent? I'll bet Reid doesn't agree, but the lack of an extension for Alex Smith may indicate that he is just waiting for his opportunity to pull that trigger. Smith may indeed be one of the best that was available, but you don't win games in the NFL by default. Interestingly enough, Kitna (who started off Lewis's tenure in Cincy) was signed as a UFA in 2001 (Dick Lebeau signing? I thought he was a defensive mind...hmmm...). Could Smith wind up as the mentor to our next QBOTF? From Wikipedia:
Then there is the RB situation that Lewis has had to deal with over the years. When Marvin took over the Bengals, he had a pretty good runner named Rudi Johnson. Johnson was taken in the fourth round (100th pick) in the 2001 draft. Guess who was responsible for that choice? Dick Lebeau! Go figure. One of the most respected defensive minds in the game, finally gets his due as HC and he chooses a back who eventually has three top 10 performances and averages over 1400 yards per season doing it for Coach Lewis. I hope Marvin at least bought Dick a nice dinner somewhere. Marvin has seemingly done it again this off season, signing the law firm (Ben Jarvis Green Ellis) to handle his backfield. Some feel that BJGE has lost a step, but I think he will be enough to handle the task.
Then, when the struggles returned in 2007, Marvin looks around and finds an underutilized, ex Texas RB just kind of laying around in an Austin Texas jail cell named Cedric Benson. Benson goes on to have career years of his own for the Bengals (wearing Rudi's old number btw), actually helping the team back into the playoffs in '09 and '11. Nice choice Marvin. Still putting those pieces together.
Lewis was no slouch when it came to the WR position either. Remember Ocho Stinko and Who'surmama? Those two put on quite a show with Carson Palmer for a few years. BTW, here is more of the draft class that was brought in by Dick Lebeau in 2001. That's right, Chad was taken 36th in the 2nd round and Housh was taken at 204 in the seventh. See what I mean about Marvin buyin' Dick a nice dinner??
Then when Chad and Housh began to age, Lewis even threw the dice (and lost) on another aging, mouthy WR named Terrel Owens. Funny thing though, once Lewis's team kinda got rolling, they didn't let up. No, they decided not only to take a QB in that 2011 draft but to grab a WR to help him with a winning future. A.J. Green was drafted with a number 4 overall pick and he has turned out to be someone to watch in the league. When TO moved on, AJ stepped right up. Sure looks like the draft has been friendly (or would you say well exploited?) to the Bengals over the last oh-so-many seasons.
Also as an aside, it's interesting that the combo of Palmer and TO failed miserably. That season's four wins are sandwiched between 9 and 10 win seasons, delaying the Bengal's emergence from flounderville by two more years. I don't know about you, but if you don't think that TO was a huge part of what went wrong between Reid/McNabb/Owens, I'd say you need to open your eyes. TO is/was a locker room cancer. Plain and simple. McNabb may not have been Tom Brady but TO is the one who tore up that team.
None of this of course, even begins to discuss where the Bengals defense has been all this time. Lewis has gone through three different defensive coordinators in Leslie Frazier, Chuck Bresnahan and now Mike Zimmer. In a very general sense, that defense has been on a slow burner over Lewis's tenure there. They have been getting better slowly the whole time. Maybe that is as much a part of their recent break through as the offensive changes.
The question for Chiefs fans is, can we learn anything from this team's improvement to help us in our quest to do the same? The answer is most likely both yes and no.
Somethings that I think are evident in the Bengals success of reversing the floundering trend that should help the Chiefs are utilizing the draft and Coaching tenure. The way things stand right now, the Chiefs are still benefitting from drafts that occured during the end of Dick Vermeil's tenure and what Herm did while he was in KC. This seems similar to Lewis's Bengals benefitting from Lebeau's draft choices.
Unfortunately for the Chiefs, Pioli's solid draft choices have not been as plentiful (on offense especially) as what Lebeau pulled off for Lewis. Hoping that Dorsey reverses that trend is what we have now. So far, none of those choices have even taken the field, so nothing can really be predicted about that. Eric Fisher should be a solid choice, we'll just have to wait and see.
DoReido's choice of Alex Smith may indeed turn out to be a case of BPA, also in somewhat similar fashion to what Lebeau did by signing Kitna as UFA in 2001. The difference, my dear Chiefs fan, is what DoReido's gave up for Smith. Those draft picks could easily put this team further behind in it's redemption if nothing is done going forward to address that. Reid is seemingly already working on that by creating a third string QB controversey. Does anyone really believe that Stanzi and Bray duking it out for third spot is all that important? It's just Reid cultivating the situation and ginning up interest hoping to regain that draft pick with a trade down the road.
It's all conjecture, just the musings of a Chiefs fan who has grown bored at watching the team lose, and in so doing trying to put the running of a football team in some sort of perspective in terms of how long the fans should have to wait for their shot. The worst part for me in all this? Even though the Bengals have finally reversed the trend, it took them 35 years and seven head coaching changes to do it. If the Chiefs follow that time line, we should be in contention again around 2046 with our fourth HC since Andy Reid.
That my friends, simply isn't good enough for me. I have lived through the last forty years. I got to witness the Joe Montana close but no cigar that has been the only time the team even came close to putting it all together and proving it on the field (just like another Cincinnatti coach did that I'll mention shortly). Marty was a good coach but his tragic flaw was an inability to win in the playoffs. What worries me most about Reid is that his flaw sounds very similar. He won more playoff games, but winning the biggest has still proven beyond his grasp.
I think that the most important thing to take from this is that it took the right combination of coaching and personnel for the Bengals to climb out of the cess pool. Lewis wasn't the first coach for the Bengals during that 35 year window, however, with an extended tenure. Sam Wyche had eight years in there and his time was similar to Lewis's except for one thing. He just couldn't quite put together two, back to back winning seasons.
It took Wyche three years to put together a winning season. Same thing happened for Lewis. Both coaches had somewhat similar records for wins and losses over those next few years, but one of them fared much better in the playoffs than the other. Marvin Lewis has never won a playoff game as HC. Sam Wyche is 3-2 in the playoffs and coached his team in a Super Bowl--that he, like Andy Reid, lost.
So technically, a floundering team (again using Bewsafs parameters) made it to and lost a Super Bowl game. I guess what that means is that any team, at any time, can catch lightning in a bottle but few teams learn how to create the lightning in the first place.
This my friends is the basis for my stubbornly clinging to the necessity of Andy Reid winning a playoff game this year as the yardstick. The Bengals have spent 18 years between Wyche and Lewis chasing what all teams covet. Wyche got the team to a Super Bowl after five years. Lewis has been there twice that time and hasn't won ONE playoff game, yet he finally managed to have two back to back winning seasons.
Reid should know how to get the job done. The choice of Smith is the choice that a coach would make that knows that you can't just throw caution to the wind and win football games. Reid went out and got a QB that has had a hot hand in the last couple seasons. The problem is that he hasn't proven he is good enough to win it all. Whether he is or not, he is good enough to stumble into and even win playoff games and Reid knows he had better produce a playoff win sooner than later. In the mean time, gin up that interest in our bench players and hope like hell that we have a shot at a decent QB choice in next years draft.
Unfortunately the double edge here is that Reid could repeat his performance in Philly and win several playoff games over the next couple seasons without winning a Super Bowl. That would suck, but letting him hang around if this team continues to underperform particularly in the win/loss arena would be worse. Reid is smart enough not to let that happen. Get ready for some 8-8 seasons Chiefs fans.
Let's go Andy Reid. I hope you are not just the next Sam Wyche.
Remember now, that all we are really talking about here is overcoming the flounders. It is my opinion that the next step, going from competitive to world class, is just as big a step. The difference is that watching a team compete with a chance to win is far more satisfying than watching blow outs followed by skinny loses and somehow making excuses for why the team is so talented but can't get it done.
Think of all the players that have gone through Lewis's system in that 10 years. He's had three starting QBs, two of which have been well above average in the league in Jon Kitna and Carson Palmer. Palmer owns many of the clubs records for QBs. Dalton was drafted two years ago (in the second round btw) and has been able to play well enough to get them winning records. Will he be the future of the franchise? That remains to be seen. Does that add wood to the 'we need to draft our own QB' fire? I'd say you're damn straight it does.
Both Palmer and Dalton were Cincy's own draft pics. Carson was taken with the first pick of the 2003 draft and Dalton with the 35th pick of the 2011 draft. You still think that hiring retreads like the Chiefs keep on doing is preferable to drafting and developing your own talent? I'll bet Reid doesn't agree, but the lack of an extension for Alex Smith may indicate that he is just waiting for his opportunity to pull that trigger. Smith may indeed be one of the best that was available, but you don't win games in the NFL by default. Interestingly enough, Kitna (who started off Lewis's tenure in Cincy) was signed as a UFA in 2001 (Dick Lebeau signing? I thought he was a defensive mind...hmmm...). Could Smith wind up as the mentor to our next QBOTF? From Wikipedia:
Kitna's secondary role with the team was to prepare young quarterback Carson Palmer (the Bengals' #1 draft pick in 2003). It was a role Kitna accepted gracefully. By 2004, Palmer was ready, leading the Bengals to another 8–8 season.
Then there is the RB situation that Lewis has had to deal with over the years. When Marvin took over the Bengals, he had a pretty good runner named Rudi Johnson. Johnson was taken in the fourth round (100th pick) in the 2001 draft. Guess who was responsible for that choice? Dick Lebeau! Go figure. One of the most respected defensive minds in the game, finally gets his due as HC and he chooses a back who eventually has three top 10 performances and averages over 1400 yards per season doing it for Coach Lewis. I hope Marvin at least bought Dick a nice dinner somewhere. Marvin has seemingly done it again this off season, signing the law firm (Ben Jarvis Green Ellis) to handle his backfield. Some feel that BJGE has lost a step, but I think he will be enough to handle the task.
Lewis was no slouch when it came to the WR position either. Remember Ocho Stinko and Who'surmama? Those two put on quite a show with Carson Palmer for a few years. BTW, here is more of the draft class that was brought in by Dick Lebeau in 2001. That's right, Chad was taken 36th in the 2nd round and Housh was taken at 204 in the seventh. See what I mean about Marvin buyin' Dick a nice dinner??
Also as an aside, it's interesting that the combo of Palmer and TO failed miserably. That season's four wins are sandwiched between 9 and 10 win seasons, delaying the Bengal's emergence from flounderville by two more years. I don't know about you, but if you don't think that TO was a huge part of what went wrong between Reid/McNabb/Owens, I'd say you need to open your eyes. TO is/was a locker room cancer. Plain and simple. McNabb may not have been Tom Brady but TO is the one who tore up that team.
None of this of course, even begins to discuss where the Bengals defense has been all this time. Lewis has gone through three different defensive coordinators in Leslie Frazier, Chuck Bresnahan and now Mike Zimmer. In a very general sense, that defense has been on a slow burner over Lewis's tenure there. They have been getting better slowly the whole time. Maybe that is as much a part of their recent break through as the offensive changes.
The question for Chiefs fans is, can we learn anything from this team's improvement to help us in our quest to do the same? The answer is most likely both yes and no.
Somethings that I think are evident in the Bengals success of reversing the floundering trend that should help the Chiefs are utilizing the draft and Coaching tenure. The way things stand right now, the Chiefs are still benefitting from drafts that occured during the end of Dick Vermeil's tenure and what Herm did while he was in KC. This seems similar to Lewis's Bengals benefitting from Lebeau's draft choices.
Unfortunately for the Chiefs, Pioli's solid draft choices have not been as plentiful (on offense especially) as what Lebeau pulled off for Lewis. Hoping that Dorsey reverses that trend is what we have now. So far, none of those choices have even taken the field, so nothing can really be predicted about that. Eric Fisher should be a solid choice, we'll just have to wait and see.
DoReido's choice of Alex Smith may indeed turn out to be a case of BPA, also in somewhat similar fashion to what Lebeau did by signing Kitna as UFA in 2001. The difference, my dear Chiefs fan, is what DoReido's gave up for Smith. Those draft picks could easily put this team further behind in it's redemption if nothing is done going forward to address that. Reid is seemingly already working on that by creating a third string QB controversey. Does anyone really believe that Stanzi and Bray duking it out for third spot is all that important? It's just Reid cultivating the situation and ginning up interest hoping to regain that draft pick with a trade down the road.
It's all conjecture, just the musings of a Chiefs fan who has grown bored at watching the team lose, and in so doing trying to put the running of a football team in some sort of perspective in terms of how long the fans should have to wait for their shot. The worst part for me in all this? Even though the Bengals have finally reversed the trend, it took them 35 years and seven head coaching changes to do it. If the Chiefs follow that time line, we should be in contention again around 2046 with our fourth HC since Andy Reid.
That my friends, simply isn't good enough for me. I have lived through the last forty years. I got to witness the Joe Montana close but no cigar that has been the only time the team even came close to putting it all together and proving it on the field (just like another Cincinnatti coach did that I'll mention shortly). Marty was a good coach but his tragic flaw was an inability to win in the playoffs. What worries me most about Reid is that his flaw sounds very similar. He won more playoff games, but winning the biggest has still proven beyond his grasp.
I think that the most important thing to take from this is that it took the right combination of coaching and personnel for the Bengals to climb out of the cess pool. Lewis wasn't the first coach for the Bengals during that 35 year window, however, with an extended tenure. Sam Wyche had eight years in there and his time was similar to Lewis's except for one thing. He just couldn't quite put together two, back to back winning seasons.
It took Wyche three years to put together a winning season. Same thing happened for Lewis. Both coaches had somewhat similar records for wins and losses over those next few years, but one of them fared much better in the playoffs than the other. Marvin Lewis has never won a playoff game as HC. Sam Wyche is 3-2 in the playoffs and coached his team in a Super Bowl--that he, like Andy Reid, lost.
So technically, a floundering team (again using Bewsafs parameters) made it to and lost a Super Bowl game. I guess what that means is that any team, at any time, can catch lightning in a bottle but few teams learn how to create the lightning in the first place.
This my friends is the basis for my stubbornly clinging to the necessity of Andy Reid winning a playoff game this year as the yardstick. The Bengals have spent 18 years between Wyche and Lewis chasing what all teams covet. Wyche got the team to a Super Bowl after five years. Lewis has been there twice that time and hasn't won ONE playoff game, yet he finally managed to have two back to back winning seasons.
Reid should know how to get the job done. The choice of Smith is the choice that a coach would make that knows that you can't just throw caution to the wind and win football games. Reid went out and got a QB that has had a hot hand in the last couple seasons. The problem is that he hasn't proven he is good enough to win it all. Whether he is or not, he is good enough to stumble into and even win playoff games and Reid knows he had better produce a playoff win sooner than later. In the mean time, gin up that interest in our bench players and hope like hell that we have a shot at a decent QB choice in next years draft.
Unfortunately the double edge here is that Reid could repeat his performance in Philly and win several playoff games over the next couple seasons without winning a Super Bowl. That would suck, but letting him hang around if this team continues to underperform particularly in the win/loss arena would be worse. Reid is smart enough not to let that happen. Get ready for some 8-8 seasons Chiefs fans.
Let's go Andy Reid. I hope you are not just the next Sam Wyche.
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